哪吒机器人提醒：
提醒：John Quiggin
【标题】Further adventures on Intrade
【摘要】as i mentioned last time i wrote about my adventures on intrade, i’m sceptical of the claim, a special case of the (semi-strong version of the) efficient markets hypothesis, that the odds in betting markets provide the best estimate of the probability of political outcomes. i managed to double my small stake betting on newt gingrich, and might have made more if i had not overestimated the efficiency with which the republican electorate processes information. i sold on the news of his work for f... (02-11 22:18)
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